Forum:2007 Atlantic hurricane season
May Week 4 02L.Barry Possible sfc low in the Carribean This is from TD02E Discussion 3: THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT THE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO A BROAD PARTLY CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY 36 HR...AND WITH A SURFACE LOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 48-72 HR. THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS EVOLUTION WITH THE PROVERBIAL SQUASHED SPIDER PATTERN. Something to watch. – NSLE 14:25, 30 May 2007 (UTC) :SSD put Floater 2 on it and labeled it an invest. Even if it doesnt develop it will bring some much needed rain to Florida. ---CWY2190talk 16:03, 30 May 2007 (UTC) ::It's looking really good now. -80°C cloud tops and a low developed, according to TWD. Should be an invest soon. -- WmE 11:31, 31 May 2007 (UTC) 92L.INVEST Now an INVEST. -- NSLE logged out, 218.186.10.10 13:56, 31 May 2007 (UTC) :Better develop fast if it's going to, there's a wall of 80-knot shear in the central Gulf http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html. -- SkyFury 18:26, 31 May 2007 (UTC) ::That will eat up the storm in a hurry...there is no way it can survive beyond Cuba with the subtropical jet stream... CrazyC83 21:22, 31 May 2007 (UTC) :::NHC says that the conditions favor non-tropical development. All right! Now we can get a nor'easter in the Gulf of Mexico! What fun! -- SkyFury 03:58, 1 June 2007 (UTC) Not anymore. It says: THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN YESTERDAY HAS MOVED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A WELL DEFINED CENTER BUT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SQUALLS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION COULD BRING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL OR SUTROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER WESTERN CUBA AND WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. Could become TD2 or Barry this afternoon, despite the enormous shear to the north. I can't see any tropical system lasting long though. CrazyC83 16:06, 1 June 2007 (UTC) :Umm, I hate to be Johnny Raincloud here but this pile of crap doesn't look like an organized tropical anything. It looks like a squall line associated with a deep low pressure system. I would be very surprised if this thing even makes it to Subtropical Depression. I think Barry's gonna have to wait. -- SkyFury 18:51, 1 June 2007 (UTC) 02L.BARRY So, that's what I call an active pre-season. -- WmE 19:23, 1 June 2007 (UTC) :So, it's official. Barry is here already, and it looks like were in for a long ride this season.71.7.209.70 19:32, 1 June 2007 (UTC) ::Barry on FNMOC. – NSLE 19:33, 1 June 2007 (UTC) 2 storms and its only June 1. Wow. ---CWY2190talk 20:09, 1 June 2007 (UTC) :It's possible that this may have been a tropical storm since yesterday, and we had 2 storms before the season even began! It would be better to have a 2005-like number full of fish-spinners and weak storms than a "quiet" season with a Katrina-like storm or two... CrazyC83 20:29, 1 June 2007 (UTC) Tropical Storm Barry Officially TS Barry now. Advisory out. CrazyC83 20:48, 1 June 2007 (UTC) :Recon reported 67kt at flight level --> about 50-55kt at the surface. Could see a special advisory as convection is building up. CrazyC83 21:14, 1 June 2007 (UTC) ::I think i might write the article for Barry, if one is necessary.Mitchazenia 21:23, 1 June 2007 (UTC) :::It probably should be written eventually but we should start in the sandbox. CrazyC83 21:33, 1 June 2007 (UTC) ::::I am: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Mitchazenia/Tropical_Storm_Barry_%282007%29.Mitchazenia 21:50, 1 June 2007 (UTC) ::: It's hard to beleive that we have 2 storms already. I mean, last year we only had 2 storms in the middle of July, and even 2005 only at the end of June. The omens are not good. Cainer91 21:26, 1 June 2007 (UTC) ::::What the...que eating of words. I didn't think this one had a snowball's chance in hell of getting a name. How do you make it through 80-knot shear and gain organization? It's only June 1 and the season's already gotten weird. -- SkyFury 21:55, 1 June 2007 (UTC) :Third time only in recorded history that we get two storms by June 1; third earliest second storm of the year. Impressive, much impressive.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 22:05, 1 June 2007 (UTC) ::Keep in mind that 1908 had two hurricanes before May was over and still ended up with just 10 storms. -- SkyFury 06:32, 2 June 2007 (UTC) :::Oh, never said otherwise. An impressive start means nothing as for how things will end. But it takes nothing from how impressive the start was.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 15:41, 2 June 2007 (UTC) What I find weird is that Barbara had very good conditions to strengthen, possibly to Cat 3 status but it didnt. And in the Atlantic, two blobs of clouds have survived high shear and other conditions to not only become depressions, but get named. Very weird. ---CWY2190talk 15:14, 2 June 2007 (UTC) :The clouds are looking less and less tropical here in Florida. Now that Barry's a depression, the end is in sight. Also, Barry just put us two storms ahead of the most active AHS ever recorded at this point; Arlene formed June 9. Cyclone1(17:15 UTC -2/06/2007) ::As Guillaume noted, this is the third earliest formation of the second tropical cyclone of the season. May 17, 1887 and May 24, 1908 were the earlier dates. And, as I noted, the exciting start means nothing with regards to how the season's going to end up. While the active start is entertaining, let's not get ahead of ourselves. -- SkyFury 17:48, 2 June 2007 (UTC) :::I see what your saying. This activity could pull a 180 by July or so and we could end up with 8 named storms. Or maybe La Nina will kick in and we'll end up with 40 named storms. It's best not make any predictions in June. Cyclone1(18:02 UTC -2/06/2007) ::::Thats Very true but everyone has got to admit we have had a strange start to the Season Two Days in and we have already Got 2 Offical RSMC Storms in Each Northen Hemisphere Basin except the C PAC Jason Rees 19:57, 2 June 2007 (UTC) As of the 11:00am advisory Barry is now a TD. - Patricknoddy Talk 19:54, 2 June 2007 (UTC) :The NRL says Barry is to dissapate on the 5th near Chatham, Mass. - Patricknoddy Talk 19:56, 2 June 2007 (UTC) ::I removed the header because it isn't nesessary. The last advisory has been written on Barry. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/022033.shtml. What a dud. Cyclone1(20:43 UTC -2/06/2007) Yeah But what do you expect from a tropical storm Forming so close to the US that it makes landfull the next day Jason Rees 23:29, 2 June 2007 (UTC) :Haha true, oh well. Cyclone1(23:43 UTC -2/06/2007) :: Well I'm late. Again... I feel sad now. Oh well... He looked like a Barry good storm! (ba dum psh!) *cricket* Lilac DownDeep 04:57, 4 June 2007 (UTC) June Week 1 AoI: Vigorous wave off Africa I know it's too early for Cape Verde, but I have the NHC to back me up. Check out this loop. See that large wave with a hint of rotation? The NHC did. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 19W AND 22W APPEAR TO BE WITH A SQUALL LINE AWAY FROM THE AFRICA COAST. THIS SQUALL LINE IS SUPPOSED TO BE PRECEDING A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PUT ON THE 03/1800 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS ALONG 12W. LET US WAIT A LITTLE BIT LONGER AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS FEATURE. (from TWD) could this mean they're expecting something? Just something to possibly watch. Cyclone1(18:53 UTC -5/06/2007) :Definitely no Surface low though. This is a much better page for Cape Verde, for everyone's reference (Since no one but me seems to know). -Winter123 00:33, 6 June 2007 (UTC) ACE calculations Should they be done here or at Wikipedia itself? I know that Andrea's ACE was 0.00 (unless it regenerates as fully tropical), but for future reference or if Andrea becomes an actual TS, where should it be? CrazyC83 00:55, 12 May 2007 (UTC) :I don't see why not. We could give updates here on how the ACE changes over time as the storm progresses, whereas Wikipedia probably would just give the final "high" ACE value. Galaxy001talk 05:31, 12 May 2007 (UTC) I have created the ACE calculations at Forum:2007_Atlantic_hurricane_season/ACE. CrazyC83 20:49, 12 May 2007 (UTC) Given that last season we linked to ACE calculations, we should keep them on Wikipedia. – NSLE 02:54, 16 May 2007 (UTC) Andrea a kickstarter After a month-long, worldwide storm drought, Andrea appears to have kickstarted the tropics. There's a storm in the Bay of Bengal and a TSFA in the West Pacific. -- SkyFury 14:58, 15 May 2007 (UTC) - Whoa, really? I haven't been able to keep up with the other seasons aside from the Atlantic. Lilac DownDeep 19:08, 15 May 2007 (UTC) :There's now another TSFA in the South Pacific. -- SkyFury 13:36, 16 May 2007 (UTC) ::They are both named storms now. In addition, there are two very distinct lows in the Atlantic right now, one of them, in the Bahamas, (which is very convection rich), is predicted to become a "gale" (we all know what that means). Here is an image of the low. Interesting? Just throwing that out there. Cyclone1(23:06 UTC -17/05/2007) :::That low is 91L now (see above). Gales are extratropical systems. --Coredesat 18:03, 18 May 2007 (UTC) ::::I know, but look at all the gales that were found to be tropical cyclones in post analysis. And there was the 2004 gale, which probably could have. Looks like this one is a lost cause anyway. Cyclone1(21:07 UTC -18/05/2007) :::::Look as hard as we might, there are going to be some storms that will never be found, by anyone. There are probably more than three storms that have occured in the South Atlantic over the past forty years. Some storms pose as extratropical but really have a warm core and a closed surface circulation. Some of the ones we've found here on Wikipedia using GIBBS are interesting but impossible to prove whether it's a tropical cyclone or not. Part of the fun, I guess. -- SkyFury 21:43, 23 May 2007 (UTC) And what fun it is! Cyclone1(17:00 UTC -24/05/2007) Hey, just wanted to join in! I'm a FL panhandle native, and I followed and made some anonymous posts to the 2005 hurricane season talk page, when I was living in Pensacola. My apartment complex was bulls-eyed by Dennis. In 2006 I moved to southern Louisiana, and do some recovery work on the side. I was planning to join the Wikipedia discussions then, but was put off when we had to get more "serious". I found the death of those talk pages to be greatly annoying, especially considering the extremely high quality of articles that resulted (the 2005 season article is really top-notch). But alas, I understand their rules. I'm REALLY excited y'all started this up...I've already joined in the betting pools, and hope this page stays active. I see some familiar names here from the 2005 season already...hope Eric is here too somewhere. I want to let you know my predictions for strong storms and bad locations (NC/NYC, strong Gulf Storm) aren't "hopes" by any means, but rather fears in a post El Nino year. Anyway, looking forward to an active discussion board, and here's hoping for the best and being prepared for the worst! Gulf Coastie 02:24, 1 June 2007 (UTC) NRL What do you mean by NRL? - Patricknoddy Talk 19:25, 2 June 2007 (UTC) Naval Research Lab here http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html Jason Rees 19:34, 2 June 2007 (UTC)